Formidable China’s per capita GDP exceeded $10,000.
In 2019, China’s per capita GDP is expected to reach $10,000. As a big country with a population of nearly 1.4 billion, this achievement is hard-won, which fully demonstrates the strong driving force and great potential of China’s economic development. At the same time, it also means that the scale of middle-income groups in China is further expanded, which is helpful to cultivate new economic growth points, promote China’s economy to a domestic demand-driven growth model, and enhance its ability to resist external shocks — —
This month, the National Bureau of Statistics will officially announce the transcripts of the national economy in 2019. The annual GDP is expected to be close to 100 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP will reach 10,000 US dollars.
As the largest developing country in the world and the second largest economy in the world, China’s per capita GDP has exceeded $10,000. What does it mean for China’s economy and the world economy? What a remarkable achievement is this?
Highlight a stronger comprehensive national strength
"The improvement of this economic scale not only means that people’s income has increased and their lives have become more affluent, but also is a major progress in human history." Ning Ji Zhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that according to the data of the World Bank in 2018, the total population of countries with per capita GDP above 10,000 US dollars is about 1.6 billion. As China, as a big country with a population of nearly 1.4 billion, has a per capita GDP of more than 10,000 US dollars, 3 billion people in the world have entered this ranks, which will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the world.
"According to the World Bank’s middle income standard (per capita income of $3,996 to $12,375), it took 54 years for the global per capita income to reach $10,000. Among them, it took 13 years for South Korea, 15 years for Singapore, 40 years for Brazil and 12 years for China. " Xin li, a professor at the School of Statistics of Beijing Normal University, said that China’s population base is significantly higher than that of other middle-income countries, and it is really hard to achieve a higher per capita income level and more inclusive economic growth (poverty reduction) in a shorter period of time under the situation of weak economic foundation and complicated internal and external environment.
Li Zuojun, deputy director of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the State Council Development Research Center, said that at the beginning of the founding of New China, China’s per capita GDP was only a few tens of dollars. In 1978, the per capita GDP was only $156, and it was not until 2001 that it reached the $1,000 mark. It took only 18 years from $1,000 to $10,000, which is enough to show the strong power and great potential of China’s economic development.
"Although China’s per capita GDP still belongs to ‘ Intermediate students ’ However, as the country with the largest population in the world, the per capita GDP exceeding 10,000 US dollars clearly demonstrates China’s strong comprehensive national strength. " Li Zuojun said.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, said that after China’s per capita GDP exceeded 10,000 US dollars, it was another step forward from the ranks of high-income countries designated by the World Bank, which was a remarkable achievement.
"Whether it is the total GDP or the per capita GDP, it represents the increase of the country’s comprehensive economic strength and social wealth, and it also means the steady improvement of people’s living standards." Xu Hongcai said that under the background of complex and changeable external environment and heavy domestic reform and development tasks, the steady growth of GDP per capita is a strong evidence for the sustained and healthy development of China’s economy. The steady growth of GDP per capita will further boost confidence in resisting the downward pressure on the economy.
The endogenous motivation of development is enhanced.
At the first China Macroeconomic Annual Meeting hosted by China Macroeconomic Research Institute, some experts pointed out that the per capita GDP exceeded $10,000, representing a major transformation of the whole social structure. Then, how will this historic breakthrough affect China’s economy?
"The per capita GDP has exceeded 10,000 US dollars, which means that the scale of middle-income groups in China has further expanded." Xin li said that according to the standards of the World Bank, China is the country with the largest middle-income group in the world, regardless of the exchange rate or purchasing power parity theory. This is not only of great significance to the economic restructuring of China, but also necessary for the sustained and healthy development of China economy and the world economy.
Xin li analyzed that the growth of middle-income groups is the main force to promote China’s economy to a domestic demand-driven growth model; It is conducive to promoting the import of high-quality products and services and further integrating China into the world market; It is conducive to expanding the world influence of China’s consumer market, enhancing China’s ability to resist external shocks and improving its economic resilience.
Sheng Laiyun, member of the leading group and deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the "2020 China Economic Trends Annual Meeting" held by Economic Daily that after the per capita GDP reaches 10,000 US dollars, the scale of middle-income groups will continue to expand and the consumption upgrading trend will be further accelerated.
Li Zuojun said that with China’s per capita GDP reaching US$ 10,000, there will be more room for economic development and the resilience of growth will be further enhanced. In particular, the increment scale represented by the same growth rate is larger, the space for macro-control is more flexible, and investment and consumption will further increase, thus driving sustained economic growth.
In Xu Hongcai’s view, China has great potential for economic development, strong resilience and large room for maneuver, and its internal important support is a population of nearly 1.4 billion. This huge group itself has huge consumer demand, and with the growth of per capita GDP, the potential consumer demand will be further transformed into real growth.
"At present, the outstanding problem of China’s economic operation is insufficient demand. How to put ‘ Dormant ’ The release of its economic potential is an important issue in economic work. " Xu Hongcai said that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will exceed 40 trillion yuan in 2019, which is expected to become the largest consumer market in the world, and the contribution of consumption to economic growth will further increase. With the per capita GDP exceeding $10,000, not only will the consumption scale continue to expand, but the consumption upgrading trend will become more and more obvious.
Xu Hongcai said that at present, China’s supply-side capacity still needs to be improved, the supply structure still needs to be optimized, and the quality of products and services can not fully meet the needs of the broad masses of people for a better life. With the per capita GDP reaching a new level, the multi-level and diversified consumption demand space is further opened, people’s demand for high-quality products and services will continue to increase, and the demand for culture, tourism, information, health, pension, sports and entertainment consumption will also grow steadily. These demands will provide direction and guidance for businesses and enterprises to invest, which will eventually lead to the development of new industries, foster new growth points and achieve a new dynamic balance between industrial structure and demand structure at a higher level. From this perspective, the endogenous power of economic development has been enhanced.
Beware of the "middle income trap"
The per capita GDP has exceeded $10,000, which not only shows China’s national strength, but also means that the lives of ordinary people are more affluent. However, there are also many people who think that per capita GDP has nothing to do with themselves, and even think that it is "averaged" and "increased".
In fact, GDP and income are different concepts. GDP is the total wealth created by domestic residents in a period of time, and income is distributed by wealth to individuals. Some people think that there is a "temperature difference" between per capita GDP growth and their own feelings, mainly because some outstanding problems of insufficient economic development imbalance have not been solved.
Xin li analyzed that, on the one hand, the different institutional mechanisms that caused the income gap are still not smooth. Under the condition of market economy, distribution according to factors makes people have income gap because of the number and quality of production factors. Even if distribution according to work, there will be a gap because of the different abilities and knowledge levels of different workers. On the other hand, in the case of capital accumulation, the income in a certain period may be more obtained by some people who have accumulated capital in the past. In addition, the urban-rural gap, technological progress and other factors will also affect the income gap.
"Generally speaking, to solve the problem of income gap, we should make full use of market mechanism and public policy to improve supporting policies from multiple levels. However, it should be noted that we must not excessively sacrifice efficiency in exchange for fairness. " Xin li said.
"Per capita GDP and per capita disposable income are two different concepts, but they are closely related." In Xu Hongcai’s view, over the years, people’s income has kept pace with economic growth, which is also a remarkable achievement. From a longer-term perspective, it is necessary to further expand the scale of middle-income groups and realize the transformation from "dumbbell" income distribution structure to "olive" structure, which is the key to breaking through the "middle-income trap".
"The development experience of many countries shows that after the per capita GDP reaches a certain level, the gap between the rich and the poor will further widen and eventually fall into ‘ Middle income trap ’ . This is something we should be highly vigilant about. " Li Zuojun said that to adhere to the people-centered development thought, we must constantly promote the all-round development of people. First, we should further increase tax reduction and fee reduction, give consideration to efficiency and fairness, and optimize the income distribution of different social classes; Second, we should continue to increase assistance to low-and middle-income groups and people in need to help them solve the practical difficulties they face in their survival and development; Third, we must continue to strengthen and improve people’s livelihood, increase investment in education, medical care, old-age care and other areas of people’s livelihood, properly solve livelihood problems such as difficulties in seeing a doctor, going to school and providing for the elderly, and enhance the happiness and sense of gain of ordinary people.