This is a serious Oscar prediction： Xiao Li is sure to win the Best Actor.

　 　 The film circle that has been noisy for a whole year will finally end at the Oscar ceremony at the end of this month. Whether the six major film companies are still smiling at the box office this year, or the independent film producers stick to excellent word-of-mouth works, the 2015-2016 awards season is full of excitement and dazzling.

　 　 Works with different themes, such as "Xiao Li", Leonardo DiCaprio and Brie Larson, all tried their best to make the competition for actor awards particularly fierce. So, in this Oscar, who will win the grand prize and who will come back disappointed?

　 　 Please keep this serious forecast list.

　 　 Interrupt in advance:The 1905 movie network will be held in Beijing time7: 00 a.m. on February 29th.Don’t miss the live video of the Oscar red carpet and awards ceremony!

Focus or reaching the top of the Oscar

　 　 Since it won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival last year, Focus has won the award all the way in the outpost of the award season — — Los Angeles, Washington, Boston Film Critics Association Award, American Film Critics Association Award, Film Critics’ Choice Award, American National Critics Association’s Best Film of the Year, Screen Actors Guild Awards’s Best Group Play, etc., which are almost the same as last year’s — — However, this may also be because the Film Critics Award prefers independent films.

　 　 To be honest, this year’s Focus is under great pressure. It will confront four powerful old film companies, and the situation is also complicated. The Resurrection unexpectedly won the Golden Globe Award for Best Film, The Big Short won the Producers’ Guild Award for Best Film, and Screen Actors Guild Awards’s best group play was given to Focus. So, The Big Short is the biggest rival that Focus faces. This is different from winning important awards in the second half of last year and finally defeating "Youth". This year’s situation is more complicated. Will the Oscar be awarded to a dramedy film that blends into reality for two years in a row? Is it really difficult for independent films to beat big producers?

"Big Short" became the most powerful contender for best film.

　 　 This year’s independent films were very brilliant in the award season, with Searchlight Company winning three nominations, A24 Company winning four important nominations, and those produced by the same company also winning four nominations, and the documentary also locked in the best documentary feature film award. Focus from Open Road won a total of six nominations, which shows that this year’s independent films have the strength to compete with films from big companies such as Resurrection, Crazy Max 4.

　 　 In addition, another nomination that can bring good luck to the best film is the best screenplay. Among the eight finalists of this year’s best films, only four films were nominated for screenplay awards, such as Mars Rescue, Focus, Big Short and Brooklyn, while Mad Max 4 and The Resurrection have dropped out of the competition. On the whole, "Focus" has the most prize-winning strength, but the resistance from "Big Short" is not small.

George miller has a high voice for best director.

　 　 一般情况下，最佳影片和最佳导演是挂钩的，在过去87届中有64次均是如此。但自从6年前，学院评委开始实行偏好投票制后，在2012年和2013年连续两年最佳影片和最佳导演是不一致的。2012年最佳导演是的李安，但最佳影片是本·阿莱克的（小本也未提名最佳导演）；2013年影片奖被捧走，但最佳导演由的阿方索·卡隆获得。越来越多的趋势开始表明最佳影片和最佳导演并非要绑架在一起。

　 　 与最佳影片一样，今年最佳导演的竞争形势也颇为复杂。其中乔治·米勒《疯狂的麦克斯4》，亚利桑德罗·冈萨雷斯·伊纳里图《还魂者》和托马斯·麦卡锡《聚焦》更具竞争力。

　 　 从目前来看，亚利桑德罗·冈萨雷斯·伊纳里图遥遥领先，除了拿到了导演工会奖，英国电影学院奖的最佳导演也收至麾下。连续两年获得最佳导演的情况在历史上仅有2次，上一次还是1951年，或许这位墨西哥裔的导演将再次写入奥斯卡历史，成为史上值得纪念的时刻。

伊纳里多能否连续两年捧走最佳导演成看点

　 　 而乔治·米勒则是其最大的危险，首次获得奥斯卡最佳导演的提名乔治，在此前其已经荣获了华盛顿、洛杉矶、芝加哥、评论家选择奖等在内的最佳导演奖，实力也是不容小觑。

Xiao Li took the best actor as the nail on the head.

　 　 Undoubtedly, this year’s Oscars stole the limelight in terms of topic. Apart from the "too white" controversy more than last year, whether Xiao Li, who has been nominated for five times, can win the Best Actor in one fell swoop has become the focus of global attention. Screen Actors Guild Awards and Critics’ Choice Awards can be said to be the two most important weathervanes of Oscar performance awards. Fortunately, Xiao Li has lived up to expectations in these two important awards. At the same time, the Golden Globe Award for Best Actor and the Washington, Boston and Chicago Film Critics Awards have also been awarded to Xiao Li, adding to his weight in winning the Oscar for Best Actor. If the best actor in this year’s Oscar is not Xiao Li, it will be the biggest surprise, which can only show that the judges of the academy are deliberately unwilling to award this award to him.

The acting skills of the French shark in Jobs were also affirmed.

　 　 On the other hand, Michael Fassbender, the actor of Steve Jobs, is also a strong competitor, because only Fa Sha won the awards of the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and the American Online Film Critics Association for Best Actor. Although "Little Freckle" won the prize in the competition, it has already withdrawn from the competition in the award season early. Matt Damon won the comedy actor in the Golden Globe Award, but his strength was mediocre when he put it in the Oscar, while "Old White" Bryan Cranston’s was regarded as making up the numbers.

　

Brie Larson’s The Room

　 　 In addition to the best actress, Room was also shortlisted for four important awards, including best film, best director and best adapted screenplay. It can be seen that the film was quite favored by the judges throughout the award season. In the Screen Actors Guild Awards and Golden Globe Awards, Brie Larson won the Best Actress Award. Three years ago, Larson won wide acclaim, and after three years, she made a comeback, and her relaxed performance in Room won recognition again.

　 　 This time, it’s Saoirse Ronan from another independent film Brooklyn, in which the Irish immigrant bravely faced a strange new world and showed amazing acting skills. At present, Ronan has also won awards from Washington and new york film critics.

Saoirse Ronan’s Brooklyn

　 　 In addition, Oscars often like to leave a vacancy for European actresses, such as Julia Binoche and marion cotillard in previous years. This year, this position was given to charlotte rampling, a veteran actress who plays a role full of doubts and uneasiness about marriage. She won the Silver Bear Award last year and was praised as "the best performance of the year". At the same time, Lan Pulin was nominated for the Oscar heroine for the first time, and her strength should not be underestimated.

Stallone is expected to win the best male match.

　 　 This year’s Screen Actors Guild Awards for Best Supporting Actor went to idris elba. Interestingly, Alba didn’t nominate the Oscar at all. Only mark rylance and Christian Bale are nominated for the Oscar and Screen Actors Guild Awards, but Sylvester Stallone is the most eye-catching one in this list. He won the Golden Globe Award for Best Male Matching, which added a lot of weight to it. This is also Stallone’s return with the theme of boxer after losing the Oscar in 1976. It is difficult for Stallone to enter the award season for similar roles in the future, and there is a great chance of winning the recognition of the Oscar judges this time.

Rylance’s supporting role was praised.

　 　 There is another nominee who cannot be ignored — — Mark rylance, who plays the Soviet intelligence agent rudolf abel in bridge of spies. Rylons has been playing a prominent role in supporting roles since the outpost in the awards season, and won the awards of Boston, new york and National Film Critics Association. At the same time, Screen Actors Guild Awards’s nomination has more or less added luster to his Oscar. At present, in terms of odds, Rylons ranks second.

Rooney Mara

　 　 This year’s best supporting actress can be said to be the most competitive award, and any actor who comes out alone has the strength to win the prize. Although Kate Winslet was blessed with the Golden Globe Award, Kate didn’t win any other awards or critics’ favor throughout the award season, and even she was surprised when she won the Golden Globe Award.

　 　 Carol can be described as "miserable" in the whole award season, from the word-of-mouth film that was favored by the media in Cannes to the tragic achievement of only two awards in the award season, which is somewhat unexpected. However, the performances of the two actresses have always been concerned. Rooney Mara won the Cannes Film Award and the American Online Film Critics Award, and also scored some points for the Oscar competition.

Alicia vikander’s The Danish Girl

　 　 And alicia vikander, who just won the Screen Actors Guild Awards with The Danish Girl, performed particularly well. Not only that, but she was also shortlisted for the Golden Globe Award for Best Female Matching with Mechanical Ji. Both films performed well in the award season, and the strength of Wicander PK Mara should not be underestimated.

　 : for predicting the award

　 Be the biggest enemy

Best original screenplay:

Focus

Bridge of spies.

Mechanical Ji

Best adapted screenplay:

Big bear

Room

Brooklyn

Carol

The Martian

Best animated feature film:

Inside Out

Disorder

Best documentary feature film:

Amy

The image of silence

What happened, Miss Simone? 》

Best foreign language film:

Son of Saul Hungary

Snake Hug Colombia

Heb Jordan

France

Denmark

Best photography:

Emmanuel lubezki’s Resurrection.

John seale’s Mad Max: Fury Road

Ed Lachman

Roger Deakins

Robert Richardson

Best costume design:

Carol

Cinderella

The Danish Girl.

Rebirth

Mad Max: Fury Road.

Best editing:

Focus

Rebirth

Big bear

Mad Max: Fury Road.

Best makeup and hairstyle design:

Mad Max: Fury Road.

Rebirth

Best soundtrack:

Hateful eight.

Carol

Bridge of spies.

Border killer

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best original song:

"Til It Happens To You" and "Hunting Ground"

"writing’s on the wall", "007: Ghost Party"

“Earned It”

“Simple Song #3”

Best art director:

Mad Max: Fury Road.

Rebirth

Bridge of spies.

The Danish Girl.

The Martian

Best sound editing:

Rebirth

Mad Max: Fury Road.

The Martian

Border killer

Best sound effect:

Rebirth

Mad Max: Fury Road.

Bridge of spies.

The Martian

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best visual effect:

Mad Max: Fury Road.

Mechanical Ji

Rebirth

The Martian

Star Wars: The Force Awakens