The enthusiasm for finding a house during the Spring Festival holiday rebounded. The transaction volume of second-hand houses in 50 cities increased by over 50% from the previous month.

　　Zhongxin Jingwei, January 30th (Xue Yufei, intern Li Junhao) In the past Spring Festival holiday, crowds returned, and many industries showed signs of recovery. How did the property market perform?

　　Recently, a number of institutions have released data on the Spring Festival property market. The data shows that during the Spring Festival, the heat of housing search in major cities in China increased slightly, and the recovery of the second-tier cities became the main reason for the heat rise in the property market. In terms of second-hand housing, the overall warming trend of the market is more obvious, and the price of second-hand housing has also stabilized.

　　The heat of finding a house has risen, and the volume of new houses has not fully recovered.

　　According to the statistics of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, during the Spring Festival holiday in 2023, the total housing-seeking enthusiasm of major cities in China increased by 3.7% year-on-year. Among them, the housing-seeking enthusiasm of first-tier cities decreased slightly by 3% compared with last year’s Spring Festival, while the new first-tier cities were flat year-on-year, while the second-tier cities rose slightly, with an increase of 6.3%.

　　The data shows that the heat of finding a house in Dongguan and Foshan in the new first-tier cities has the highest year-on-year increase, with an increase of more than 10%. In the second-tier cities, the heat of finding a house in Huizhou, Harbin, Taiyuan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Dalian and Wenzhou has a higher increase; Most of these cities with higher growth rates are cities with loose housing purchase policies and low mortgage interest rates.

　　Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said that in the current favorable national policy environment, the expectation of buying houses has recovered, and the real estate market has some signs of recovery, among whichDue to the liberalization of epidemic control in first-tier cities, the number of people traveling and visiting relatives has increased significantly, which has led to a certain decline in the enthusiasm for finding a house during the Spring Festival; Due to the continuous relaxation of the housing purchase policy in second-tier cities, people who have returned to their hometowns are more inclined to buy houses in provincial capital cities or "strong second-tier" cities that have risen in recent years, so the enthusiasm for finding houses in second-tier cities has increased.

　　Vertically, during the Spring Festival holiday in 2023, the heat of housing search in cities in all cities increased significantly compared with the previous week, with first-tier cities rising by 16.6%, new first-tier cities by 18.4%, second-tier cities by 21%, and cities in all cities by 19.9%. Judging from the daily changes, from January 14th to New Year’s Eve, the heat of housing search in cities in all cities decreased day by day, and it showed a trend of rising day by day since the Spring Festival. Zhang Bo believes that this is mainly because of various promotional activities during the Spring Festival to attract customers to see the house online.

　　However, it should be pointed out that although the heat of finding a house has rebounded, the transaction volume has not recovered to before the epidemic. According to the data of the Central Finger Research Institute, the transaction scale of new houses representing cities remained low during the Spring Festival holiday, which was about 21% lower than last year’s Spring Festival holiday and recovered to 75% before the epidemic (2019). Only some cities experienced year-on-year growth at a low base in the same period last year. In addition, according to the data surveyed by analysts from all over China, the average number of visits to projects in several key cities has increased compared with last year’s Spring Festival, such as Beijing, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi ‘an and other cities. However, most buyers have kept on the sidelines, and the actual transactions are generally relatively few.

　　Chen Wenjing, director of market research in the Index Division of the Central Finger Research Institute, told Zhongxin Jingwei that as the market is still in the downward adjustment stage, the real estate in various places is mainly sold in a straight way, and no large-scale promotion has been carried out, and the discount basically continues the previous preferential treatment. Regional differentiation is still the mainstream feature of the real estate market in various places.

　　The second-hand housing market as a whole has picked up and house prices have stabilized.

　　Compared with new houses, the overall warming trend of the second-hand housing market is more obvious. According to the statistics of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, the average daily demand for second-hand houses in 70 cities nationwide increased significantly during the Spring Festival compared with the average daily level in January, with a total increase of 56 cities, of which only 9 second-tier cities and 5 third-tier cities declined.

　　During the Spring Festival in first-tier cities, the demand for second-hand housing increased overall compared with the average daily demand in January, with Guangzhou increasing the most, with 4.16%, Shanghai increasing by 3.71%, Beijing increasing by 3.16% and Shenzhen increasing by 0.30%.

　　58 Anjuke Research Institute also said that among the second-tier cities, the cities where the demand for second-hand housing increased by more than 10% during the Spring Festival compared with the average daily level in January were all northern cities, especially the cities in the three northeastern provinces, among which Changchun, Shenyang and Harbin were among the three provincial capitals, and Dalian’s demand for second-hand housing increased by 18%, ranking first in the list of second-tier cities. However, the southwestern cities collectively experienced a correction. Nanning, Kunming, Guiyang, Chengdu and other cities saw significant declines, with Nanning having the largest decline, with an average daily decline of 16.82% compared with January.

　　Third-tier cities show a similar trend to second-tier cities. During the Spring Festival, the average daily demand will be significantly higher than the average level in January, especially in low-priced cities in Northeast China, such as Mudanjiang, Jinzhou and Dandong. The average listing price of second-hand houses in these cities is basically around 5,000 yuan/square meter.

　　From the perspective of transaction volume, the overall transaction volume of second-hand houses in the country also increased significantly during the Spring Festival this year. RealData data show that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 50 cities increased by 57% compared with last year’s Spring Festival. The transaction level in the first 27 days of January was basically close to the whole month of December last year, in which the market in key cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei continued its rebound trend in December last year, and Beijing, Langfang, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang exceeded the transaction level in the whole month of December last year, and the overall daily average of the four cities increased by 38%.

　　With the increase of demand heat and transaction volume, the second-hand housing prices have also stabilized. According to the data of RealData, the price index of second-hand houses in 50 cities was flat last week (January 16-January 22) compared with the previous week, which was the first time since the price continued to fall in the second half of last year. In the last week, the price index of second-hand houses dropped by 0.3% compared with the last week of 2022 (December 19-December 25), which was the smallest monthly decline since the second half of last year. The number of cities with falling prices dropped from 38 in December to 36.

　　Cities where house prices had fallen deeply before showed a weak rebound. Compared with the last week of 2022, the prices of Zhongshan and Foshan in the Pearl River Delta rose by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. The price index of second-hand houses in Zhou Du, Shenzhen has been flat since January, and key cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, such as Beijing and Langfang, rose by 0.6% month-on-month, while Shijiazhuang and Tianjin also stabilized slightly.

　　RealData believes that as people get out of uncertainty, their income expectations will recover, and they will change from precautionary saving in the past to pursuing wealth growth. Under the trend of population and employment further gathering in big cities, the real estate in core cities still has irreplaceable value, and people’s expectation of excessive panic in real estate will change. Chen Wenjing predicted that in the short term, the implementation of the policies on both sides of supply and demand will continue to be accelerated, and the housing demand in first-and second-tier cities is strong, which is expected to usher in the market recovery first. The "Xiaoyangchun" of the property market may appear in a few cities, but for most cities, it will take longer to repair the market. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)